03.04.2020 – 12.48 – These are impressive and tragic numbers, in terms of loss of turnover and value, coming from the estimates of the observatory on the financial statements of limited liability companies published by the Board and the National Foundation of Accountants.
In Friuli Venezia Giulia, taking into account the block of activities in March and April and the gradual recovery of activity in the following months the expected economic loss amounts to 255 million euros.
#IoRestoaCasa, set up to contain contagions from Covid-19, will lead in 2020 to a collapse in the turnover of companies working in the restaurant and hotel sector (almost 73 thousand companies, which in 2019 had a turnover of 37.8 billion euros), by 16.7 billion euros, a decrease of 44.1% compared to 2019.
In particular, the hotel accommodation sector is affected by a loss of 7.9 billion euros, equal to -53.8 per cent, while catering sector is affected by a degrowth of 8.8 billion euros, equal to -37.9 per cent.
In 2020 in Friuli Venezia Giulia the turnover will be -115,633 million euros in the accommodation sector, and -139,765 million euros in the catering sector: a disaster.
At regional level, Lombardy is the most affected, with a drop of 3.5 billion euros, followed by Lazio with -2.7 billion euros and Veneto with -1.6 billion euros.
The calculation takes into account the drop in demand along with the stop to tourism that had hit the sector even before the emergency in Italy, and the block on activities imposed by the decree of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.
The estimate was conducted on a sample of companies that have submitted at least one balance sheet in the last three years (2016-2018); the quantifications were carried out on the basis of some hypotheses regarding the impact of the crisis caused by the coronavirus emergency separately for the companies in the “Accommodation” and “Catering” sectors: for the former, the strong seasonal nature of production activity was taken into account, using Istat data on 2019 tourism flows divided by quarter.
In order to obtain the final estimates on the annual financial statements, two different
monthly impact measures were used for the above-mentioned sectors, they were estimated taking into account the block of activities in March and April and the gradual recovery of activity in the following months.
The assumptions used predicted falls in activity as early as January 2020.
In particular, for the catering sector, continuous activity was taken into account even in the months of closure (e.g. for take-away food or particular catering and canteens services) and, in any case, an incomplete resumption of production until December 2020.
This is a sudden and unexpected crisis for a sector that was growing both in terms of turnover and number of employees (5.9% and 5.7% respectively compared to the previous year, following a positive trend in the last period).
Michael Guggenbichler translation
